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  2. Bayesian structural time series - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_structural_time...

    Bayesian model averaging. Combining the results and prediction calculation. The model could be used to discover the causations with its counterfactual prediction and the observed data. [1] A possible drawback of the model can be its relatively complicated mathematical underpinning and difficult implementation as a computer program.

  3. Counterfactual thinking - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_thinking

    Counterfactual thinking is a concept in psychology that involves the ... The first uses a matrix representation of logical operations inspired by neural models of ...

  4. Econometric model - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometric_model

    An econometric model then is a set of joint probability distributions to which the true joint probability distribution of the variables under study is supposed to belong. In the case in which the elements of this set can be indexed by a finite number of real-valued parameters , the model is called a parametric model ; otherwise it is a ...

  5. NM-method - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NM-method

    They were aware of the fact that in general, the IPF is not suitable for counterfactual predictions: they explicitly warned that their algorithm is “not by itself useful for prediction” (see Stephan and Deming 1940 p. 444). [13] [12] In addition, the domains are different for which the IPF and the NM-method yield solutions.

  6. Counterfactual conditional - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterfactual_conditional

    Counterfactual conditionals (also contrafactual, subjunctive or X-marked) are conditional sentences which discuss what would have been true under different circumstances, e.g. "If Peter believed in ghosts, he would be afraid to be here."

  7. Instrumental variables estimation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_variables...

    IV techniques have been developed among a much broader class of non-linear models. General definitions of instrumental variables, using counterfactual and graphical formalism, were given by Pearl (2000; p. 248). [10] The graphical definition requires that Z satisfy the following conditions:

  8. Simulation heuristic - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simulation_heuristic

    Significant research on simulation heuristic's application in counterfactual reasoning has been performed by Dale T Miller and Bryan Taylor. For example, they found that if an affectively negative experience, such as a fatal car accident was brought about by an extraordinary event, such as someone who usually goes by train to work but instead ...

  9. Impact evaluation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_evaluation

    Impact evaluation designs are identified by the type of methods used to generate the counterfactual and can be broadly classified into three categories – experimental, quasi-experimental and non-experimental designs – that vary in feasibility, cost, involvement during design or after implementation phase of the intervention, and degree of ...