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English: Severe probabilities map for March 31, 2023, featuring two tornado-driven high risk areas. ... 1630UTC Convective Outlook, featuring two high risk areas.
The 1630 UTC day 1 outlook noted that a powerful derecho with embedded swaths of 80–110 miles per hour (130–180 km/h) straight-line winds was likely, along with embedded tornadoes – including the risk for strong (EF2+) tornadoes – and isolated instances of very large hail. [139]
A high risk severe weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for convective weather events in the United States. On the scale from one to five, a high risk is a level five; thus, high risks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of a major severe weather outbreak.
Convective outlooks are issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Zulu time (also known as Universal Coordinated Time or UTC). [29] The categories at right refer to the risk levels for the specific severe weather event occurring within 25 miles (40 km) of any point in the delineated region, as described in the previous section.
Convective storm detection; E. ... Weather map; Marine weather forecasting; ... This page was last edited on 18 October 2023, at 05:36 (UTC).
Some recent analog years for this year's forecast include 2006 (below-average amount of Atlantic storms), 2009 (below average), 2012 (above average) and 2018 (above average).
At the 1630 UTC update on March 2, however, the 15% hatched area was removed due to lingering uncertainty about the timing of the most favorable wind shear for tornadoes versus the convective mode of the ongoing storms.
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