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In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [1] [2] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
In order to still use the Box–Jenkins approach, one could difference the series and then estimate models such as ARIMA, given that many commonly used time series (e.g. in economics) appear to be stationary in first differences. Forecasts from such a model will still reflect cycles and seasonality that are present in the data.
In time series analysis, the Box–Jenkins method, [1] named after the statisticians George Box and Gwilym Jenkins, applies autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to find the best fit of a time-series model to past values of a time series.
Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which ...
"A Short Preview of Free Statistical Software Packages for Teaching Statistics to Industrial Technology Majors" (PDF). Journal of Industrial Technology. 21 (2). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 25, 2005.
Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.
Cointegration is a statistical property of a collection (X 1, X 2, ..., X k) of time series variables. First, all of the series must be integrated of order d.Next, if a linear combination of this collection is integrated of order less than d, then the collection is said to be co-integrated.
In statistics, the order of integration, denoted I(d), of a time series is a summary statistic, which reports the minimum number of differences required to obtain a covariance-stationary series. Integration of order d