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The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to
ABC News project 538: This poll currently shows Harris with a 47.9% to 47.0% edge over Trump. 270towin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.1%.
ABC News project 538: This poll currently shows Harris with a 47.9% to 47.0% edge over Trump. 270towin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.1%.
Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
ABC News Project 538: The final poll shows Harris with a 48.0% to 46.8% edge over Trump. 270toWin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2%.
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...