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On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
The Philippines uses parallel voting for its lower house elections. For this election, there are 317 seats in the House of Representatives; 254 of these are district representatives, and 63 are party-list representatives. [7] Philippine law mandates that there should be one party-list representative for every four district representatives.
In 2022, polls conducted in the final three weeks before Election Day missed the final margin of Senate, House and governor elections by a weighted*** average of 4.8 points.
In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...