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The constituency was created in 1918 when the two-seat Portsmouth constituency was split into three divisions: Central, North and South.. It was abolished for the 1950 general election and largely replaced by a new Portsmouth West constituency as the axis of division changed, but was re-established for the February 1974 general election.
Electoral Calculus was founded and is run by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. [2] The Electoral Calculus website includes election data, predictions and analysis. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. [3]
1885–1918: The Municipal Boroughs of Portsmouth and Southampton, the Sessional Division of Fareham, and part of the Sessional Division of Southampton. 1918–1950: The Urban Districts of Fareham, Gosport and Alverstoke, Havant, and Warblington, and the Rural Districts of Fareham and Havant. 1974–1983: The Urban District of Fareham.
2010–2023: The Borough of Medway wards of Gillingham North, Gillingham South, Hempstead and Wigmore, Rainham Central, Rainham North, Rainham South, Twydall and Watling.. 2023–present: Further to a local government boundary review which came into effect in May 2023, [3] [4] the constituency now comprises the following wards of the Borough of Medway:
One such model was proposed by Anthony Downs (1957) and is adapted by William H. Riker and Peter Ordeshook, in “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting” (Riker and Ordeshook 1968) V = pB − C + D. where V = the proxy for the probability that the voter will turn out p = probability of vote “mattering”
East Hampshire is a constituency [n 1] represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2010 by Damian Hinds of the Conservative Party. [n 2]Further to the completion of the 2023 review of Westminster constituencies, the constituency was subject to major boundary changes.
Portsmouth South is a constituency [n 1] represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament since 2017 by Stephen Morgan of the Labour Party. Morgan is the first Labour MP to represent the seat.
Electoral Calculus categorises the seat as being part of the “Strong Right” demographic, those who have fiscally conservative views on the economy but are also fairly nationalist and socially conservative, alongside strong support for Brexit. Additionally, the gross household income is £53,612 whilst the average house price is £567,313.