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The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
Pollster Nate Silver said that a 50/50 forecast for the presidential election means that people should start planning for the possibility that former President Trump takes back the White House in ...
According to the forecast, Harris won the Electoral College in 50.015 percent of the 80,000 simulations run, which Silver noted is… Harris takes razor-thin lead in final Nate Silver forecast ...
The first column of the renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus appeared in the Times on August 25, 2010, with the introduction of U.S. Senate election forecasts. At the same time, Silver published a brief history of the blog. [538 43] All columns from the original FiveThirtyEight were also archived for public access. [40]
Since departing FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been publishing on his Substack blog Silver Bulletin [3] and serves as an advisor to Polymarket. [4] Silver was named one of the world's 100 most influential people by Time in 2009 after his election forecasting model correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of 50 states in the 2008 U.S. presidential ...
Silver’s own poll in June had Republican nominee Donald Trump easily defeating Biden before the president exited the race following his debate debacle. His most recent forecast on Monday gave ...
Harris tops Trump by 1.4 percentage points in the Silver Bulletin’s national polling average, marking the vice president’s first lead in the forecast. The latest model shows Harris with 45.5 ...
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