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The bias is a fixed, constant value; random variation is just that – random, unpredictable. Random variations are not predictable but they do tend to follow some rules, and those rules are usually summarized by a mathematical construct called a probability density function (PDF). This function, in turn, has a few parameters that are very ...
Systematic errors can be either constant, or related (e.g. proportional or a percentage) to the actual value of the measured quantity, or even to the value of a different quantity (the reading of a ruler can be affected by environmental temperature). When it is constant, it is simply due to incorrect zeroing of the instrument.
An equivalent definition of entropy is the expected value of the self-information of a variable. [ 1 ] Two bits of entropy: In the case of two fair coin tosses, the information entropy in bits is the base-2 logarithm of the number of possible outcomes — with two coins there are four possible outcomes, and two bits of entropy.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
Galton's experimental setup "Standard eugenics scheme of descent" – early application of Galton's insight [1]. In statistics, regression toward the mean (also called regression to the mean, reversion to the mean, and reversion to mediocrity) is the phenomenon where if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling of the same random variable is likely to be closer to its mean.
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face of uncertainties of various kinds. It is used to project partial information about random variables and other quantities through mathematical expressions.
The following graph displays the expected value taking uncertainty into account (the smooth blue curve) to the expected utility ignoring uncertainty, graphed as a function of the decision variable. When uncertainty is ignored, one acts as though the flight will be made with certainty as long as one leaves at least 100 minutes before the flight ...