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One manifestation of the overconfidence effect is the tendency to overestimate one's standing on a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of overconfidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success.
After a series of easy victories against their opponents, the overconfident Japanese failed to take elementary precautions. Italy's entry in WW2 (1940) followed a series of victories in Libya (1922-1932), Ethiopia (1935-1936), Spain (1936-1939), and Albania (1939), which gave the Fascist regime the illusion of being able to win a global war ...
Hindsight bias influences the decisions of investors in the investment sector. Investors tend to be overconfident in predicting the future because we mistakenly believe that we have predicted the present in the past, so we assume that the future will follow our predictions. Overconfidence is the killer for investment returns.
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Below, you’ll find some of the best posts of all time from the Confidently Incorrect subreddit. This community, which has 1.1 million members, is dedicated to calling out people who should ...
Alicke and Govorun proposed the idea that, rather than individuals consciously reviewing and thinking about their own abilities, behaviors and characteristics and comparing them to those of others, it is likely that people instead have what they describe as an "automatic tendency to assimilate positively-evaluated social objects toward ideal trait conceptions". [6]
The Celtics have lost 3 of their last 5 games, including a 110-97 loss vs. the Toronto Raptors. (AP Photo/Nick Wass) ((AP Photo/Nick Wass)) 🖥️ Watch this full episode on YouTube
The illusion of control is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control events. It was named by U.S. psychologist Ellen Langer and is thought to influence gambling behavior and belief in the paranormal. [1]