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An expansion is the period from a trough to a peak and a recession as the period from a peak to a trough. The NBER identifies a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production". [26]
A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. ... mind is that the economy goes through phases of expansion and recession ...
A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Economic Recessions in the U.S. Recessions are a normal part of the business ...
Following the steep recession between 1973 and 1975, an expansion occurred through the remainder of the decade. Inflation remained high during this period and energy prices were a particular sore point. The expansion ended with a second energy crisis, which saw oil prices reach an all-time peak that would not be surpassed in real terms until 2008.
This recession was one of the main causes of the American Civil War, which would begin in 1861 and end in 1865. This is the earliest recession to which the NBER assigns specific months (rather than years) for the peak and trough. [6] [8] [21] 1860–1861 recession October 1860 – June 1861 8 months 1 year 10 months −14.5% —
In economics, a trough is a low turning point or a local minimum of a business cycle. The time evolution of many economics variables exhibits a wave-like behavior with local maxima (peaks) followed by local minima (troughs). A business cycle may be defined as the period between two consecutive peaks. [1] [2]
There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF. [ 3 ] In the United States , a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
A decline to that level would represent potential downside of 10% from current levels and a peak to trough decline of about 13%. ... "Our 2025 base case is for a continued economic expansion (i.e ...