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In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. [1] It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Okun's law is an empirical relationship. In Okun's original statement of his law, a 2% increase in output corresponds to a 1% decline in the rate of cyclical unemployment; a 0.5% increase in labor force participation; a 0.5% increase in hours worked per employee; and a 1% increase in output per hours worked (labor productivity).
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June from 4% in the prior month, nearly triggering a reliable recession indicator. While unemployment is still historically low, its rate of ...
Other data series are available back to 1912. The unemployment rate has varied from as low as 1% during World War I to as high as 25% during the Great Depression. More recently, it reached notable peaks of 10.8% in November 1982 and 14.7% in April 2020. Unemployment tends to rise during recessions and fall during expansions.
Rates of employment are expected to drop. Here's what you need to know if you lose your job.
The cooling job market also saw the unemployment rate rise to 4.3 percent in July, up from 4.1 percent last month. The federal data is the latest in a string of worrisome economic news that has ...
Additionally as of September 2012, the long-term unemployment is the highest it had been since World War II, [84] and the unemployment rate peaked several months after the end of the recession (10.1% in October 2009) and was above 8% until September 2012 (7.8%).
In unemployment insurance (UI) in the United States, the average high-cost multiple (AHCM) is a commonly used actuarial measure of Unemployment Trust Fund adequacy. . Technically, AHCM is defined as reserve ratio (i.e., the balance of UI trust fund expressed as % of total wages paid in covered employment) divided by average cost rate of three high-cost years in the state's recent history ...