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As of Oct. 30 at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, the margin between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump in 538's polling averages is smaller than 4 points in seven states: the familiar septet of Arizona ...
As of Aug. 19, 6:00 a.m. ET, Polymarket, one of the largest such betting sites, puts the odds of a Harris victory at 51% (one can currently bet 51.1 cents to receive $1 should she win), while it ...
Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...
According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November's election while Trump comes in at 49.3%. And now they're split across the board.
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks. The latest polls from the New York Times /Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent and ...